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Elanders: Strong demand, but supply-side disturbances - ABG

Q3 report due on Friday, 15 October
Adj. EBITA down 3% for ’21e and 2% for ’22e
10x ’22e EV/EBITA, 8-10% ’21-’23e lease adj. FCFY

We expect Q3 sales of SEK 2,760m, down 1% y-o-y (-2% organic, -+2% M&A, -1% FX). Organic growth in Q3 is likely to be held back by customers’ component shortage issues; we expect this to primarily impact the Automotive and Electronics customer segments. We also expect a continued decline in subscription box revenues to affect the Fashion & Lifestyle customer segment. We estimate EBITA of SEK 143m for a margin of 5.2% (6.8%). While we expect an unchanged EBITA margin vs. Q2’21 in Supply Chain Solutions, Print & Packaging Solutions (PPS) should see a sequential decline due to its high exposure towards the Automotive customer segment. In general, we argue that the outlook on the demand side is still positive, and that the expected Q3 setbacks are mostly temporary effects caused by customers having to decrease or even shut down production.

On our estimates, the share is trading at 10x ’22e EV/EBITA, offering a lease adj. FCF yield of 8-10% for ’21-’23e. Historically, the share has traded at 11x f12m EV/EBITA (3Y avg.). The current valuation is 42% below our segment-weighted peer group average. Operationally speaking, Elanders’ respective ’20-’23e sales and EBITA CAGR forecasts of 4% and 13% are relatively in line with peers (6% and 12%). Finally, we add that the current supply chain issues could mean that more companies may start looking to sourcing and procurement experts such as Elanders to manage their supply chains in the future.
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