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Eltel: 2022 looking brighter - ABG

Q4 report on Monday, 7 February We expect guidance for more margin improvements… …and more details on the Polish high voltage business

Q4 expectations We expect sales of EUR 210m, down 8% y-o-y (-9% organic and +1% FX). The y-o-y sales decrease is mainly due to losses of contracts included in the comparable period combined with the phasing out of non-profitable contracts. We estimate the latter will continue to improve the adj. EBITA margin, to 2.2% (1.7%), translating into an adj. EBITA of EUR 4.4m. In conjunction with the Q4 report, we expect Eltel to guide for improved profitability in ‘22 and to give more detail about the strategic alternatives for the Polish operations, which are being evaluated. Volumes to stabilise in ‘22e Besides some small changes, we leave our estimates relatively unchanged. Between ’16 and ‘21e, Eltel’s sales have decreased by ~40%, partly because of reduced investments by core customers, but mainly due to its strategic initiative to focus on the Nordic core markets and thus divest/phase out non-core activities. We expect the transition to a pure Nordic player to be close to finished, so we estimate a stabilization in volumes going into ‘22e-‘23e. Meanwhile, we forecast the adj. EBITA margin will improve to 3.0% in ‘23e, from 1.5% in ‘21e. We note that Eltel’s target is to achieve an adj. EBITA margin of 5% in ‘23e, but we are somewhat more cautions. All in all, we estimate a 40% adj. ‘21-‘23 EBITA CAGR. Trading at 18x ‘22e EV/EBITA, slightly above core peers Eltel is trading at 18x ‘22e EV/EBITA and 14x ‘23e EV/EBITA, compared to its closest peers, Transtema and Netel, with both at ~11x and ~9x for ‘22e and ‘23e, respectively. Läs mer på Introduce
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