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Enzymatica: The common cold reappears this season - ABG

Cold markets are improving but sales will lag
The common cold, along with other communicable diseases, is moving towards a more normal season as societies open. This is also evident in sales of cold remedies, which are up y-o-y and starting to return to 2019 levels, according to the company. Sales of ColdZyme should follow, but due to inventory build-up during the pandemic, it could take up to six months until retailers and distributors start to place their orders. This was evident in Enzymatica’s Q3’21 sales of SEK 15.4m, which was below our expectations (ABGSCe SEK 22.2m). Versus Q3 last year, sales declined 45%, but we note that comps were boosted by early signs of ColdZyme efficacy and large initial orders in newly launched markets. Given the lower sales, we believe the gross margin at 64% held up well and the EBIT loss of SEK -6.0m was well below our expectations (ABGSCe -9.0m), driven by lower opex.

‘26 financial targets: Net sales of SEK 600m & 28% EBIT margin
Positively, Claus Egstrands assumed his new role as CEO already in September, three months ahead of schedule. With a CEO in place, the board has given financial targets, seeking net sales of SEK 600m with an EBIT margin exceeding 28% by 2026. The sales target implies annual growth of 32% from 2020 and 41% from the end of our forecast period. The targets reflect an ambitious growth journey ahead, but with distributor agreements giving access to ~60 markets, we believe Enzymatica already has a lot in place. Likewise, the proven >60% gross margin should enable high EBIT margins at scale.

Lower near-term estimates
With signs of cold markets returning, we leave our long-term sales estimates largely unchanged, but we lower near-term sales as we expect a de-stocking period. With the lower opex, we reduce our near-term cost assumption slightly. The company currently holds a cash position of SEK 50m, with a quarterly burn-rate of SEK 10m.
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