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Eolus Vind: Difficult Q3, hoping for a strong Q4 - ABG

Difficult Q3’21 on low completion rate in Öyfjellet
We expect the project to be slightly delayed into ’22e
Good long-term outlook, in wind, solar, energy storage

Eolus had a difficult Q3, only managing to complete 15% of the Öyjfellet project (compared to our forecast of 28%). This meant sales was 42% below our forecast, while the EBIT was only just above break-even compared to ABGSCe of SEK 88m. The Öyfjellet project has been held back by some technical and COVID-related difficulties. Nevertheless, 69 of 72 turbines have already been constructed, with 24 taken into operation. It will be a race against time to get all turbines into operation before year-end, with increasingly difficult weather a potential obstacle. Apart from this, the portfolio increased marginally to 9.1GW (9.0), with 1.8GW in late-stage, unchanged compared to Q2’21.

On our lower expectations for Öyfjellet (we now assume a slight delay causing a lower margin), we have lowered our value range from SEK 195-255 to SEK 190-250. The stock trades on ~13.5x ’22e EV/EBIT, while generating a FCF yield of ~7-9% over the forecasting period.
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