We lower '23e-'24e EBIT by 28-30%, as we raise our opex expectations, driven by the organisation's ramp-up in personnel costs and as we now take a more conservative view on EBIT contributions from development projects. Still, our forecasts imply a clear step up in the earnings level from H2'23, operating then at an annualised EBIT level of around SEK 400m.
~22 GW total project portfolio, ~8 GW in offshore
The company added ~4 GW to its development project portfolio (offshore in Finland) and now has a solid ~22 GW project development portfolio, with a mix of different types of technology. It consists of storage (~2 GW), solar (~4 GW), offshore (~8 GW) and onshore (~8 GW). This puts the company in a good position for revenue recognition long-term. However, only 1.8 GW is in late-stage with commercial operating date (COD) in '24-'26, and we foresee most revenue recognition from these projects to come in '24-'25. The share is trading at 10-8x P/E on '23e and '24e. We lower our fair value to SEK 100-150 (125-175) as we expect lower EBIT margins for development projects due to increasing opex.
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