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Etteplan: Weaker Q3 figures expected - Evli Research

Seasonal slowness and COVID-19 impact

Etteplan’s Q2 results were a clear positive in the challenging environment and timely measures taken helped in keeping up profitability. The organic decline in revenue was 11.3%. During Q3 the market environment overall saw improvement compared with the restrictions during Q2 but with the third quarter being seasonally slower and a trickle-down effect of the demand weakness in Q2 we expect weakish figures. With the capacity reduction due to temporary layoffs to our understanding somewhat similar to that of Q2 we expect a similar organic revenue decline, expecting revenue of EUR 55.6m (Q3/19: EUR 61.5m). Despite good cost control, we still expect the lower revenue to have an impact on profitability and estimate an adj. EBIT of EUR 2.9m (Q3/19: EUR 4.9m), at a margin of 5.3%.

2020E: sales decline 1.7% and EBIT of EUR 18.4m

Etteplan reissued a guidance in Q2, expecting 2020 revenue to decrease slightly or be at 2019 levels and EBIT to decrease compared with 2019. We currently estimate a sales decline of 1.7% in 2020 and EBIT of EUR 18.4m (2019: EUR 22.8m). The situation with the coronavirus pandemic has turned to the worse again with the second wave and we will be keeping our eyes on comments on the potential effect on demand development.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 9.3 (8.7)

We have made only minor tweaks to our estimates ahead of the Q3 results. With the slightly improved sentiment after Q2 and peer multiple appreciation we adjust our target price to EUR 9.3 (EUR 8.7), valuing Etteplan at 7.5x 2020 EV/EBITDA, and retain our HOLD-rating.
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