Prolonged high growth further lifts profitability potential
Order intake didn’t show any signs of cooling and leaped by 90% y/y. The Q2 comparison figure was soft, but nevertheless the latest EUR 43.5m figure gained another 4% q/q and can be compared to the EUR 30m quarterly levels that used to be common. We now expect Exel to reach 15% growth this year. In our view H2 growth is bound to top 10% and thus we estimate H2 EBIT margins to increase by ca. 100bps y/y. We still expect Exel’s composites pricing to adjust for higher raw materials costs and see annual EBIT margin reach close to 10% already next year. It’s a bit early to say much about FY ’22, but the recent order intake levels suggest Exel might then grow another 10% or so. We therefore see EBIT gaining almost another EUR 3m.
We now estimate EUR 13.5m FY ’22 EBIT (prev. EUR 12.7m)
Exel’s valuation has turned, in our view, more attractive now that recent strong growth outlook has been extended. Exel is now valued ca. 9x EV/EBITDA and 14x EV/EBIT on our FY ‘21 estimates. These are still somewhat high in the historical context, but we expect them to contract to around 7.5x and 11x in one year’s time. Our TP is now EUR 11.5 (11.0), new rating BUY (HOLD).