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Fastpartner: More cautious (0.1%) value uplifts - ABG

Income from property management 3% above ABGSCe
Value changes (0.1%) below ABGSCe (0.7%)
15x 2023e P/IFPM on pre-Q1 numbers

Occupancy rate improved to 92.1% (91.3%)
Q1 rental income came in at SEK 489m (463m) compared to our forecast of SEK 485m. Net operating income amounted to 330m (308m), relative to our estimate of SEK 329m. Income from property management (IFPM) came in at SEK 246m (229m), 3% better than ABGSCe explained by lower financial costs than we had expected. The Q1 occupancy rate (excl. projects) went up to 92.1% from 91.3% (Q4’21) and 91.1% (Q1’21).

EPRA NRVPS up 21% y-o-y (adj. for DPS) to SEK 111
Property value changes in Q1 came in at SEK 31m or + 0.1% (ABGSCe +0.7%). EPRA NRV per share amounted to SEK 111 (SEK 104 adj. for equity instruments) versus our forecasts of SEK 112 and 106. The average valuation yield appears largely unchanged at 4.4%, from 4.4% (Q4’21). Net LTV went from 40.9% (Q4’21) to 42.8%. Investments in projects and tenant adjustments amounted to SEK 211m (140m) and 848m last 12 months (FPAR’s communicated ambition is SEK 600-800m per year). The isolated Q1 numbers would imply positive estimate revisions of ~2% on CEPS, while ~-2% on EPRA NRV.

15x and 0.8x ‘23e P/IFPM and P/EPRA NRV
The share is trading at 2023e P/IFPM of 15x and a P/EPRA NRV of 0.8x. This is ~-25% and +5% compared to our peer group of ATLJ, FABG, HUFV and NYF (however, consensus figures for EPRA NRV are only available for FABG, HUFV, and NYF while IFPM for ATLJ and FABG).
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