Due to higher CPI expectations, we raise our indexation assumptions for ’23-’24 by 150bp and 100bp in ’23-‘24. We have also revisited the ~9,000 m2 of new lettings in Frösunda, Stockholm, and have pencilled in a larger effect from these than before, with an aggregated rental income addition of ~SEK 27m, or 1.4% from rental income in 2021. Meanwhile, we note that our acquisition forecasts seem too high compared to recent communications from the company that slightly above SEK 1bn in acquisitions a year is reasonable. We now forecast SEK 800m per annum, corresponding to ~-2% isolated on ’22-24 rental income. Despite modelling acquisitions, net LTV remains at ~41-43% in ’22-‘24e (target of <48%).>
Short interest maturity impairs interest costs ahead
We assume interest rates will increase by 100bp gradually until ’24. Based on FPAR’s interest maturity profile (21%, 25% and 19% mature p.a. in ’22-’24), the 100bp increase means an increase of 64bp. EPRA NRV is SEK 111.8 (SEK 105.9 adj. for equity instruments), or -2% q-o-q (2% adj.) and 20% y-o-y (26% adj.), where both metrics include dividends. We estimate value changes of SEK 0.7% in Q1 and 2.4%-2% p.a. in ’22-’24. We have previously modelled yield compression, but have now removed this due to the more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
EPRA NRV CAGR of 9% in ’21-‘24e
Our estimated EPRA NRV CAGR of 9% in ’22-‘24e is somewhat below FastPartner’s ROE target of above 12% p.a. This is in line with the average consensus growth for a peer group of ATLJ, FABG, HUFV and NYF (consensus figures for EPRA NRV figures are only available for FABG, HUFV and NYF whereas IFPM figures are only for ATLJ and FABG). FPAR is trading at ‘22e P/IFPM of ~18x and a P/EPRA NRV of 0.90x. These metrics are ~20% (P/IFPM) below or ~5% (P/EPRA NRV) above the peer average. ...
Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
Aktuellt
SENASTE
