Project completions and underlying demand drive growth
Fastpartner (FPAR) delivered a Q4 report with rental income and NOI -4% vs ABGSCe. We suspect there were some non-recurring items as rental income declined sequentially by ~2.4%, thus, we only lower our top-line estimates by ~1.0-1.8% for '23-'24e. Other items (property costs and central admin) were relatively in line with expectations, while net interest surprised on the negative side. The occupancy rate excluding projects increased 0.1pp q-o-q to 92.5% (91.1%) and the forward-looking occupancy will be supported by project completions in 2023, comprising ~5% of the total lettable area. Add to that the CPI indexation, and we forecast NOI growth of ~15% y-o-y in 2023e. That said, growth is offset by higher interest rates and FPAR's short interest maturity, leading to CEPS cuts of ~9% and ~11% in 2023e and 2024e, respectively.
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