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We expect decent Q4 results, with Germany nearing breakeven. Following the divestment of the Russian operations, we now expect Germany to make up 90% of revenues ahead. However, we remain cautious on German sales in late 2023 and 2024 due to tougher market conditions. We forecast a DPS of only SEK 6.0 (87m) for 2022, as most divestment proceeds will likely be reinvested in additional workshops in Germany (not in our estimates). Ferronordic is trading at 17x 2023E EV/EBIT but 9x 2024E, which is in line with Mekonomen but below Finning at 10x. Our multiples-based fair value range of SEK 84-92 (21-55) represents 2024E EV/EBIT of 8-10x. If Germany were to reach a 5% EBIT margin, the value would increase by SEK 30 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.
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