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Ferronordic: One more quarter, one more beat - ABG

Q3 adj. EBIT SEK 160m (+18% vs. cons 135m)
Estimates likely up 8-6% for ’21e-’23e
7x ’22e EV/EBIT, 28% ’20-‘23e EBIT CAGR

Sales were SEK 1,661m (+9% vs. ABGSCe 1,520m, +10% vs. cons 1,512m), EBIT SEK 147m (+17% vs. ABGSCe 126m, +10% vs. cons 134m), adj. EBIT 160m (+27% vs ABGSCe 126m, +18% vs. cons 135m) for a margin of 9.6% (ABGSCe 8.3%, cons 8.9%), NRIs SEK -12.7m (ABGSCe 0m, cons -1m). The report was a beat across the board, both we and consensus seemed to think profitability would be held back more by supply chain issues. The SEK -12.7m NRI was attributable to organizational restructuring costs in Germany. Moreover, the company expects continued market recovery in 2022. But at a slower pace. They expect the market CE market in Russia to be driven by high commodity prices, pent-up CE demand and the National Projects infrastructure plan. However, they also reiterate the pending risk of an increased utilisation fee in Russia on CE.

The share has traded strong into the numbers (+22% L1M) and on our estimates (pre-Q3 numbers) it is trading at 7x ’22e EV/EBIT with an expected ’20-’23e EBIT CAGR of 28%.
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