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Ferronordic - Riding the market momentum - ABG

Q2 report due on Thursday 12 August, 07:30 CET
EBIT up 6% for ’21e and 2% for ’22e-’23e
Valuation update: fair value of SEK 253-327 per share

We expect Q2 sales of SEK 1,557m, +29% y-o-y (+40% org., -13% FX, +2% M&A). According to AEB market data, CE unit sales in Russia were up 74% y-o-y in Q2, and as a result we expect Ferronordic to report equipment sales in Russia/CIS of SEK 863m, +40% y-o-y (+55% org. and -15% FX). Despite the company’s history of outgrowing the market, we estimate equipment sales below market growth as we believe that supply chain issues should affect international dealers more than local ones. We expect Russia/CIS aftermarket sales to be relatively flat at SEK 216m, -2% y-o-y (+13% org, -15% FX). We anticipate EBIT of SEK 130m for a margin of 8.3% (8.7%), with equipment sales (which have slightly lower margins) to make up a larger share of group sales. We expect Germany to contribute EBIT of SEK -8m.

We update our valuation methodology (see p. 4-7) and derive a fair value range of SEK 253-327 per share based on a ’22e exit multiple EV/EBIT range of 6-8x, which acknowledges the higher risk in Ferronordic’s operations in Russia/CIS compared to global CE peers. The upper end of the value range is 39% below global CE peers and the lower end is 54% below. Risks to our valuation range include the potential implementation of an increased utilisation fee on CE machines in Russia and further FX headwinds in ’22e-’23e.
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