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Ferronordic: Windproofing the business - Nordea

Ferronordic reported 2% stronger sales but a 21% weaker adjusted EBIT, compared to Infront's pre-Q4 consensus. Behind the earnings hit lies currency headwinds of ~33% and a 3.3 pp weaker gross margin y/y in Russia/CIS as well as a SEK 25m operating loss in Germany. Despite this, sales still grew 23% y/y to SEK 1,185m, mainly due to the addition of the loss-making German operations. We lower our EBIT estimates by 6-2% for 2021E-23E to better reflect the sales mix and longer-term margins. We raise our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 194-243 (SEK 163-213) based on EV/EBIT 6.0-7.5x for 2022E (previously 5.5-7.0x). At the midpoint, this suggests a 52% discount to peers trading at EV/EBIT 12.5x in 2022E.

Ferronordic reported 2% stronger sales but a 21% weaker adjusted EBIT, compared to Infront's pre-Q4 consensus. Behind the earnings hit lies currency headwinds of ~33% and a 3.3 pp weaker gross margin y/y in Russia/CIS as well as a SEK 25m operating loss in Germany. Despite this, sales still grew 23% y/y to SEK 1,185m, mainly due to the addition of the loss-making German operations. We lower our EBIT estimates by 6-2% for 2021E-23E to better reflect the sales mix and longer-term margins. We raise our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 194-243 (SEK 163-213) based on EV/EBIT 6.0-7.5x for 2022E (previously 5.5-7.0x). At the midpoint, this suggests a 52% discount to peers trading at EV/EBIT 12.5x in 2022E.
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