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Fiskars Group: Another strong quarter on the cards - ABG

Q4 results due on February 4 We expect sales of EUR 327m and adj. EBITA of 34m Value range lifted to EUR 18-26 (16-25) per share

Heading towards a record year Fiskars publishes its Q4 report on February 4, where we expect the company to deliver a record year. The fourth quarter is seasonally strong for Fiskars, primarily driven by the gifting season driving demand in the Vita segment. More specifically, we forecast single-digit organic sales growth of 3% to EUR 327m (+4 y-o-y). On the segment level, we expect Vita to remain the main organic growth driver with 7%, but see it posting an EBITA margin contraction of 8.6pp to 13.5% y-o-y on tough comps. We expect that Terra has slightly outperformed our initial expectations due to favourable weather conditions that could have boosted demand for outdoor gardening products. As such, we pencil in somewhat flattish organic growth of 0.5%, while forecasting a 5% decline for Crea. Q4’21: Growth story seems to have continued We estimate adj. EBITA of EUR 34m in Q4’21e (-31% y-o-y), yielding a margin of 10.5% (-5.4pp vs. ‘20, -0.9pp vs. ‘19). Furthermore, we estimate that Crea will continue delivering the highest margin among the segments at an estimated 22% (+2.5pp vs. 2020, 1.5pp vs. 2019). For FY‘21e, we make minor estimate revisions, raising adj. EBITA by 0.3%. In absolute numbers, this corresponds to EUR 167m, which is in the top end of the full-year guidance range of EUR 160-170m. For ‘22e, we lower our sales estimates by 6.4% to reflect the impact of the recently announced divestment in Terra. However, we make minor positive revisions to ‘22e adj. EBITA due to the divested businesses’ below-group profitability. We are ultimately positive towards the divestment since it is in line with Fiskars’ announced growth strategy and enables the company to focus on its ‘winning brands’. Value range lifted to EUR 18-26 (16-25) per share On our updated estimates, the share is trading at ’21e-‘23e EV/EBITA adj. of 12.2x-12.9x – 14% below our ... Läs mer på Introduce
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