Guides for ‘22 sales growth of 90-110%
Positive estimate revisions on the news
New fair value range of SEK 25-43 (23-40)
Q2e: We expect sales to double y-o-y (+63% organic)
In the middle of June, Flexion announced an update to its full-year guidance on stronger than expected growth. It now forecasts 90-110% y-o-y sales growth, of which 60-80% will be organic. Earlier communication was 40-60% organic growth but after the acquisition of Audiencly that guidance became outdated. However, the increased guidance still represents a 20pp increase in the range for organic growth, which tells us that the signed top tier games from last autumn are off to a strong start in terms of monetisation. For Q2, we expect sales to double to GBP 15.7m (7.8m), with organic growth of 63% y-o-y. Furthermore, we estimate an EBIT margin of 6.9% (-0.7%) as Flexion’s growth historically has been scalable. Now we will also have a positive effect from the deal with its largest US game developer that will be accretive to margins.
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