We keep our estimates largely intact ahead of Q3. We forecast Q3’20e sales of SEK 179m, corresponding to y-o-y growth of 31%. This derives from an ARPC of SEK 172 and a customer base of 352,000, with the latter corresponding to q-o-q growth of 11,000 (vs. 11,000 in Q3’19). In terms of EBIT, we expect SEK 78m with a margin of 43%. Because Fortnox is a software company, Q3 is seasonally a strong quarter, with respect to margins.
Share is up 71% YTD, 50x 2021e EV/EBIT
Fortnox stated in conjunction with its Q2 report that it will present new financial targets at some time in H2’20. As such, it might publish these new targets in conjunction with Q3, and we are keen to see them. Our current estimate sits at 2022 sales of SEK 1,056m, corresponding to a ’19-‘22e sales CAGR of 26%. Fortnox’s share has appreciated 71% YTD and is now trading at 50x ’21e EV/EBIT, which shrinks to 39x EV/EBIT on our 2022 estimates.
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