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Fortnox: Strong sequential margins improvements - ABG

Sales in line but Q3 EBIT was 13% vs. ABGSCe
Lower investments than in H1 drove strong margins
We expect cons. to raise ’21-‘23e EBIT by 5-3%.

Sales SEK 236m (-0.5% vs ABGSC 238m and -0.9% vs cons 239m), EBITDA SEK 124m (10.9% vs ABGSC 111m and 11.7% vs cons 111m), EBIT SEK 102m (13.3% vs ABGSC 90m and 12.8% vs cons 90m), PTP SEK 100m (13.4% vs ABGSC 89m and 11.5% vs cons 90m), EPS SEK 1.30 / share (14.7% vs ABGSC 1.13 / share and 15.4% vs cons 1 / share).

Based on the Q3 report alone, our ’21-’23 EBIT estimates would rise by 4-2%. On our unrevised estimates, Fortnox’s share is trading at 70.5x ‘22e EV/EBIT. Furthermore, the share is up 27% YTD, which compares to -13% YTD for other Nordic SaaS peers.
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