Fractal’s share price has fallen sharply as the market prices in prolonged weakness in PC demand and elevated uncertainty around profitability in 2026. While we acknowledge that the impact of the DRAM shortage is likely to weigh on growth in 2026, we view the situation as temporary and see limited impact on the company’s long-term earnings power. Despite trimming our Base Case to reflect near-term uncertainty, we believe the current share price embeds assumptions that are far too pessimistic relative to Fractal’s long-term prospects.
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