Q4e: 23% org. growth and 42% adj. EBITDA margin
We forecast Q4 normalised sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 25m and 10.5m, respectively, corresponding to sales growth of 38% y-o-y (23% organically) and a normalised adj. EBITDA margin of 42%. Sequentially, we estimate platform sales to grow 6% following slightly better seasonality and underlying growth on the continued addition of new signings. In media, we expect 11% q-o-q growth on underlying rev-share growth plus additions from the World Cup and casino seasonality. On costs, we expect limited opex changes sequentially following the savings program, but offset by a small increase in normalised marketing due to higher media revenue. As a result, we expect '22e adj. EBITDA to arrive at EUR 34m, just below the top end of the guidance range of EUR 30-35m.
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