Gapwaves reported Q1 net sales of SEK18.8m, down 17% y/y and ~25% below Redeye's estimate of SEK25.0m. Adjusted EBITDA of SEK-7.3m came in ahead of Redeye's SEK-13.1m forecast on a higher gross margin and a lower cost base. Redeye views the print as inconclusive for the volume-ramp thesis: the topline miss is a setback, but Q1 precedes the production handover to Frencken in Q2 2026, which Redeye regards as the defining event. The miss does, however, tighten the path to Redeye's 2026 estimates; management commentary on the earnings call will be decisive in determining whether downward revisions are required. Redeye reads the quarter as mixed, but with the market treating small-cap misses unforgivingly, anticipates a negative share-price reaction at the open — reflecting the headline sales miss and the persistence of macro-driven softness in project revenue.
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