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Garo: Component shortages holding back sales - ABG

Q3’21 EBIT of SEK 52m -7% vs. ABGSCe
E-mobility sales held back due to component shortages
We lower ‘21e EBIT by 3%, raise ’22-‘23e by 3-4%

GARO had a slightly weaker Q3’21 than we had expected. Component shortages held back sales more than we had modeled, particularly in E-mobility. Overall, group sales were SEK 294m, up 19% y-o-y. This was 14% below our forecast of SEK 343m. On a segment basis, the Electric distribution product business was 7% below ABGSCe, while E-mobility was 28% below. A difficult component supply chain, particularly for electronic components going to E-mobility, limited GARO’s ability to meet strong market demand. Despite the weaker sales, the company delivered good profitability, with an EBIT margin of 16.5% vs. ABGSCe of 15.2%. Consequently, the group EBIT of SEK 49m was only 7% below ABGSCe of SEK 52m despite the large deviation on sales. In addition, a positive net financial line meant that net income was SEK 39m, 3% ahead of our SEK 38m forecast.

The GARO share is trading at ~46x and ~39x ’22 and ‘23e EV/EBIT. The high valuation is supported by a particularly strong growth outlook, where GARO is in a strong position in the Nordic EV-charging market. Currently E-mobility accounts for ~34% of sales (‘21e), which we expect to rise to ~46% (‘23e). In addition, we believe the largest business at the moment, Electric distribution products (~42% of ‘21e sales), should benefit from the EV-charging market. All in all, we expect GARO to see a ’20-‘23e sales CAGR of 21% and a ’20-‘23e EBIT CAGR of 29%. We value GARO using a DCF, which generates a value range of SEK 207-260 per share.
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