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Global Gaming: Back in the black - SEB

Strong quarter for Global Gaming, exceeding expectations
Revenue was SEK 71.8m in Q2, above our estimate of SEK 57m, with growth of -46% y/y and 24% q/q. Supported by a continued decrease in opex, EBIT was SEK 1.1m i.e. a 1.5% margin. Adjusted for SEK 1.9m personnel NRI, the margin was 4%, and adjusted also for FX, 10%. In our view this underlines how the company far exceeded its ambition to reach breakeven in H1 and shows that a sustainable improvement in underlying profitability has been achieved.

Scope for continued growth and EBIT margin above 10% in H2
The company states that revenue in July was 12% above the average of H1, i.e. remaining close to the Q2 level. Supported by the ambition to launch sports betting and enter new markets in H2, we expect revenue to continue to improve sequentially in Q3 and Q4, whilst maintaining good cost control and a moderate pace of expansion. With the strong improvement in underlying profitability in Q2, we see a greatly improved earnings outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2021-22 with the EBIT margin expanding above 10%. The main swing factor remains how aggressively management choose to pursue growth in new markets.

Valuation update, DCF mid-point value SEK 13.7, SOTP range SEK 9.3-14.1
Our SOTP range, accounting for the value of the cash holding and the operation, based on multiples for listed peers and recent transactions is SEK 9.2-14.1 per share. For reference our DCF with a 10% WACC yields a range of SEK 11.5-16.4 with a mid-point of SEK 13.7 per share.
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