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Hanza: Main Markets shines with impressive margins - ABG

Strong Q3 performance despite supply chain issues
Slight margin revisions, but estimates mostly unchanged
German expansion back on the agenda

HANZA reported Q3 sales of SEK 597m (+1% vs. ABGSCe 590m), up 19% y-o-y. Adj. EBITA was SEK 37m (-1% vs. ABGSCe 38m) for a margin of 6.2% (ABGSCe 6.4%). All in all, we see this as a strong result, especially when factoring in the current component shortages and raw material price hikes that HANZA faces. The Main Markets segment performed particularly well with an adj. EBITA margin of 9.4% (ABGSCe 7.9%, Q3’20 4.3%) while the 6% organic growth, according to management, does not reflect underlying demand since component shortages hampered the company’s ability to deliver on orders. Meanwhile, Other Markets showed strong organic growth of 20% but margins were somewhat lower than expected at 3.4% (ABGSCe 4.7%, Q3’20 4.3%) due to higher raw material prices. The company says that component and raw material issues should persist into ’22e, affecting both Main Markets and Other Markets to a similar extent, but this is something our estimates already account for.

On our estimates, the share is currently trading at 10x ’22e EV/EBITA (adj.) with an expected adj. EBITA CAGR of 40% for ’20-’23e as the cluster strategy continues to drive margins. Also, the company now says that German expansion is back on the agenda following a few quarters of high market uncertainty, which led to M&A being less prioritised. Finally, we raise our fair value range to SEK 28-45 (27-43) per share on the solid report and a stated desire for more German M&A.
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