HANZA reported Q4 sales of SEK 717m (+12% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 642m), up 45% y-o-y (30% organic, +16% M&A, -1% FX). Adj. EBITA was SEK 39m (-1% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 40m), for a margin of 5.5% (ABGSCe was 6.2%). NRIs were SEK 4m (ABGSCe was SEK -4m), for a reported EBITA of SEK 43m (+20% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 36m). Main Markets outperformed our expectations both on sales and margins despite a negative earnings contribution from the Beyers acquisition. However, Other Markets saw lower margins than expected, which was due to the ongoing facility expansion projects that are set to continue at least until Q2’22e. Management retains their view that material shortages will continue affecting H1’22e, also adding that high sick leave from Omicron cases will likely lead to some delayed sales and irregular capacity utilisation in Q1’22e.
Main Markets estimates raised; Other Markets lowered
Main Markets have outperformed our expectations for a few quarters in a row, and we see margins improving in ’22e as synergies from acquisitions are gradually realised. However, Other Markets’ margins are still pressured by expansion programs, and new expansions have been announced during Q1 as well. Therefore, we raise our estimates for Main Markets, but lower our estimates for Other Markets, which at a group level amounts to +1% on ’22e-’23e adj. EBITA.
11x ’22e EV/EBITA (adj.), 14% ’21-’24e adj. EBITA CAGR
On our estimates, the share currently trades at 11x ’22e EV/EBITA (adj.) with an estimated ’21-’24 adj. EBITA CAGR of 14%. 2021 was a year where we saw significant margin expansion thanks to operational improvements throughout the year, resulting in an impressive adj. EBITA growth of >100% for the full year. Finally, we leave our fair value range of SEK 35-55 per share unchanged.
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