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Hanza: Strong demand but difficulties delivering - ABG

Q3 report due on Tuesday, 9 November
Beyers acquisition added to estimates
9x ’22e EV/EBITA, 40% ’20-’23e EBITA CAGR

We expect Q3 sales of SEK 590m, up 17% y-o-y (+11% org, +7% M&A, -1% FX) and EBITA of SEK 38m, for a margin of 6.4% (4.3% in Q3’20, 6.4% in Q2’21). In Q2’21, we saw an increase in profitability but also some offsetting effects from supply chain disruptions and in general we expect more of the same in Q3, with the group EBITA margin stable on a sequential basis. The significant y-o-y profitability improvement is driven primarily by HANZA’s cluster strategy starting to play out but is also helped by easy comps as Q3’20 margins were hampered by COVID-19 effects. Furthermore, we believe the underlying demand for the company’s services is not fully reflected in our sales estimates given that there should be difficulties delivering on contracts in Q3 due to logistics issues, which we believe will result in some inventory build-up and weaker cash flow for the quarter.

The share is up 153% YTD because of operational improvements at the company that have resulted in significant margin expansion. As HANZA continues to build out its cluster strategy, creating increasingly mature clusters with higher profitability, group margins should follow. On our estimates, the share is currently trading at 9x ’22e adj. EV/EBITA with an expected ’20-’23e EBITA CAGR of 40%. Finally, we raise our fair value range to SEK 27-43 (24-39) per share due to our estimate revisions.
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