InfraCom (Q4 Review): Margin reset; acquisition optionality reopens - Redeye

Redeye trims its fair value range to SEK19–37 (previously SEK19–50), with a base case of SEK28 (previously SEK34), following a Q4 miss on both revenue and EBITDA and a downward revision to long-term margin targets. The combination of stalled top-line growth, a margin ceiling that now caps EBITA at 15% — below the prior EBIT ceiling of 17% — and limited near-term organic catalysts leaves few avenues for positive surprise on a standalone basis. However, the Bredband2 divestiture has freed ~SEK178m in capital and reopened the acquisition pathway that historically drove InfraCom's growth. Management's successful execution of the Bredband2 TRS lends credibility to its ability to deploy capital creatively. With consensus already modelling a gradual margin ramp to EBIT of 13.4% by 2028, Redeye believes the organic base case is largely priced in. Upside exists to the extent InfraCom can deploy capital faster and more accretively than the market anticipates.