Infrea: Cleaning the pipes for future performance - ABG
* Q4 report Tuesday, 17 February at 08:30 CET * '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 5-15% * 7-6x EBITA in '25e-'27e, 23-13% FCF yields
ANNONS
Water & Sewage sale is completed
In Q4, Infrea completed the sale of the Water & Sewage segment to Norva24. This means that the segment will be presented as an asset held for sale in the report, and we have adjusted our numbers accordingly. The Water & Sewage segment was a small segment, but it featured an above-group EBITA margin. Due to the sale, we expect Infrea to deliver a Q4 report with -2% sales growth but +12% EBITA growth. We have seen solid improvements in both Land & Construction and Paving Services during the year and expect the improvements to continue in Q4, both internally and in a slowly improving market.
Estimate changes
With the sale of Water & Sewage, we lower '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5-15% while we are slightly increasing our 2025 estimates for both remaining segments. We still think the market is regionally tough in some areas, but we believe Infrea can navigate the landscape and defend its margins. We now forecast adj. EBITA in '25e of SEK 54m (SEK 30m in '24), accelerating to SEK 59m and SEK 67m in 2026e and 2027e, respectively, as margins improve from 1.5% in '24 to 3.0% in '27e.
Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise
We believe Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve margins given its exposure to underlying demand and exposure to public customers (~55%), alongside support from M&A (24% sales CAGR in '20-'23). For '24-'27e, we expect Infrea to deliver growth, margins and FCF in line with peers. The share is currently trading at 7-6x EV/EBITA with a 23-13% FCF yield.
