2020 and 2021 were challenging years, and so was Q4’21. Full-year 2021 sales were SEK 593m for y-o-y growth of 11%, of which -17% was organic. Customers have postponed hearing protection investments due to COVID-19 and cancelled physical sales meetings have slowed the ordering processes. The GM was 56.4% in Q4’21 vs. 59.1% in Q4’20, which shows increased costs for some components. However, this has not had a large impact on the company, and we do not expect it to be a major risk in future. Moreover, the important development of new products during the year has also contributed to increased opex, but we expect this to bear fruit in the upcoming years. Lastly, Racal has outperformed expectations of SEK 130m for annual sales, contributing SEK 149m in the last 11 months.
We remain optimistic about the second half of 2022e
We keep our estimates largely intact beyond slightly lowering the GM by 0.4pp for FY’22 and reviewing D&A costs for ’22 and ’23. Moreover, we remain optimistic about H2’22 for Invisio because: 1) book-to-bill has been >1 in the last three quarters, which we expect will bear fruit in terms of sales, 2) we expect the frequent announced orders of radios (from e.g. L3Harris), a complementary product to Invisio’s products will contribute to sales growth and 3) physical sales meetings are one reason for the delayed sales. On the latter point, we are very positive that the company plans to be involved in more than 60 trade fairs in 2022. To summarise, our estimates correspond to sales and EBIT CAGRs of 20% and 25% for ’20-’24e, respectively (using 2021 as a base year makes little sense due to the depressed earnings).
Share trading at 7.6x ’22e EV/sales, 5y NTM average of 7.8x
On our estimates, the company is trading at EV/EBIT of 68x-35x for ’22e-’23e, slightly above ... Läs mer på Introduce
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