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In the first half of December, KebNi’s single most important customer, defence company Saab has received two orders for its handheld antitank weapon NLAW, for 2.9 BN SEK and 900m MSEK, from the UK and Sweden respectively. Being the supplier of IMUs for these units, this is great news for KebNi. We now expect to see follow-on orders on the 76 MSEK Saab order in October, soon. Most likely KebNi can look forward to delivering >4000 IMU units per year in 2023-2026 corresponding to around 130 MSEK in annual revenues from Saab alone. While this is largely in line with our expectations, not least after KebNi’s recent strategy update in late November, it effectively lowers the risk in KebNi, which translates into a reduced discount rate (from 20% to 16%) in our DCF. This motivates a hike in our fair value to 1.7-2.8 (1.4-2.5) SEK per share in 12-24m.
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