Q1 expectations
Lagercrantz should have a solid Q1’21/22. We expect sales of SEK 1,180m, +21% y-o-y (+11% organic, -4% FX, +14% M&A). Niche Products (30% of sales) should be the main driver of EBITA growth in the quarter, largely driven by a high M&A contribution, and despite our expectation of a 240bp EBITA margin downtick y-o-y. We expect Electrify to be relatively stagnant sequentially due to limited expansion in electrical installation, however with solid 12% organic growth y-o-y, and improved margins as a result of the restructuring (EBITA margin Q1’21/21e at 16%, vs 14% Q1’20/21). Generally, Lagercrantz subsidiaries should have good pricing power and we expect limited margin impact from increased input costs. We forecast an adj. EBITA of SEK 181m with a margin of 15.4% in Q1’21/22 (12.8% Q1’19/20, 12.7% Q1’20/21).
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