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Lagercrantz: Continued strong performance in Q2 - ABG

Q2 report on 22 October
Estimates relatively unchanged
27x f12m EV/EBITA, 3% below core peers

We forecast Lagercrantz to continue its solid recovery following an impressive Q1. We expect sales of SEK 1,209m, +32% y-o-y (14% organic, -1% FX and 19% M&A). We forecast strong sales growth in all segments, but for Electrify, TecSec and International to show continued strong momentum and to be the main contributors to the organic growth. To our understanding, the component shortage is still a challenge for Lagercrantz, but the situation should not have deteriorated since Q1. Additionally, Lagercrantz subsidiaries should have good pricing power and we expect only a limited margin impact from increased input costs, enabling Lagercrantz to defend its high margins. We estimate adj. EBITA of SEK 194m, with a margin of 16.0% in Q2’21/22e, up 1.6pp y-o-y from 14.4% in Q2’20/21 and down 0.3pp q-o-q.

The stock is up 12% L3m and currently trades at 27x f12m EV/EBITA, ~3% below our core peer group (Addtech, Indutrade, Lifco and Sdiptech), but 81% above its own 5y average. Lagercrantz has performed similarly to peers historically (10Y EBITA CAGR of 15%, the same as peers excl. Sdiptech), and has a 5Y average f12m EV/EBITA premium of 2%.
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