We raise EBITA by 10% for ‘21/22e (organic growth +4%, margin assumptions +5% and M&A & FX +1%) and by 9% for ’22/23-‘23/24e. Or changes primarily stem from higher estimates in TecSec and Electrify. Lagercrantz management says that the supply chain constitutes some future uncertainly, but we expect the company to be able to handle the situation relatively well and only assume a minor effect in H2. We previously expected SG&A to have ramped up during Q1, putting pressure on margins. This has not been the case, and we push the ramp-up to mid H2, assuming that it should occur at a slower pace.
Valuation is increasingly lower than that of peers
Lagercrantz is trading at 24x EV/EBITA for ‘22/23e, valued 13% lower than peers (Indutrade, Lifco, Addtech, Sdiptech) on our updated estimates for ‘22/23e, which is lower than usual (5Y avg. of 3% lower). Lagercrantz has executed on M&A exceptionally well (+15% M&A contribution in ‘21/22e), and as a result, the share has not kept up with the positive earnings estimate revisions.
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