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Lime: The beauty of ‘recurring’ - SEB

Positive estimate revisions following strong numbers
As a result of the strong Q2, we have raised our adjusted EBIT estimates by 7-8% in our forecast period. This relates solely to higher revenue estimates broadly based across the income streams. We think Q2 is a testimony to cloud-based CRM systems increasingly becoming a necessity, which presumably will become increasingly evident to enterprises as digitalisation efforts accelerate. In addition, recurring revenues provide a great support in tougher times.

Encouraging recruitment pace; and most likely quality of new personnel
Given its dependence on human capital, we think a key feature of the Lime story is internal competence. We believe this crisis will reduce recruitment competition and thus create opportunities for Lime to take on larger cohorts in its trainee programmes. This is evident in the cohort starting in August where 45 FTEs will begin. We believe this is the biggest recruitment round the company has conducted by some margin.

Focus on shareholder value creation is attractive, but valuation has run away
We have raised our fair valuation range to SEK 227-245 with a mid-point value of SEK 236. We like Lime, and we think the equity story comes with several appealing elements to it: for one thing, we think management is immensely focused on shareholder value creation. However, at 30x 2021E EBITDA, we find the risk/reward unappealing.
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