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Litium: On cloud nine - ABG

Pathway to positive FCF significantly clearer
More resilient to B2C volumes than we expected
EV/ARR 2.6x, NTM EV/EBITDA 19x


Q4 report in brief

The report was better than we had anticipated, as the company appeared less sensitive to B2C-related volumes than we had assumed. With respect to the numbers, Litium achieved an ARR of SEK 68.5m, corresponding to y-o-y growth of 10% (or 13% adjusted for platform migrations). Our primary concern was that the company's variable sales would be impacted more aggressively by a sharp decline in B2C volumes due to the 25-year low consumer sentiment. A continuation of the sequential ARR growth streak was therefore a strong, mitigating signal with respect to our concern.
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