Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Litium: Year of profitability ahead - ABG

Minor '24e-'25e EBITDA estimate changes
We deem positive EBIT in '24 to be a credible target
EV/ARR 2.2x, '24e EV/EBITDA ~11x


Solid Q4 report

On balance, the Q4 report was in line with our estimates: ARR was ~2% below our estimate when adjusting for migration effects, whereas EBITDA was 2x higher than we expected (SEK 4.6m vs. ABGSCe 2.3m). With positive EBIT for the quarter, we deem the newly set target for '24 of positive EBIT to be credible. In the aftermath of the Q4 report (in addition to the other strong reports during 2023), we are confident that the company's relatively fixed revenue base is beneficial in an economic downturn, while also providing upside when customer volumes return.
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