Lumi Gruppen: Delivering on H1, H2 looks more challenging - ABG
* H1 above driven by strong margins and cost control... * ... but AY 26/27 outlook looks soft * Cons to lower revenue estimates, EBITA offset by cost actions
ANNONS
Revenues +5%, adj. EBITA well above estimate
Group revenues was NOK 277m, 5% above our estimate NOK 265m. Adj EBITA was NOK 56m (20.1% margin), above our estimate of NOK 46m. The margin beat is mainly driven by Sonans, which delivered lower opex than expected, and by ONH, which grew ~15%, supported by new online programmes and a higher share of recurring revenues. EnkelEksamen (Edrupt), consolidated from February, added NOK 18.5m revenue and NOK 4.2m adj. EBITA (22.6% margin) in the period, and is on track for continued double-digit growth in 2026/27
Sonans fall intake guided down 10-15%
For the 2026/27 intake, Sonans is guided to end the academic year 10-15% behind the prior year (we had +5%). ONH is expected to be broadly flat, as growth in recurring revenue from continuing students offsets a softer new intake. The company has implemented cost measures aimed at protecting profitability, alongside ongoing growth initiatives including continued programme portfolio development, pursuit of institutional accreditation for ONH, acceleration of the Bjørknes integration, and continued double-digit growth expected at EnkelEksamen. Lumi will issue a trading update covering the final fall intake later, likely in 6-8 weeks.
Cons down on softer guidance, but cost measures help
Post-period, Sonans sales for 2026/27 have developed materially below expectations. The company now states this is an indication of impairment and will update its goodwill impairment assessment for the Sonans after the enrolment period is closed. Revenue estimates are expected to be revised down to reflect the new softer guidance, but EBITA estimates partly offset by solid cost control.
