* A solid report and new targets underpin long-term case * Adj. EBITDA largely unchanged for '26e-'27e, sales slightly down * We now expect a 15% adj. EBITDA CAGR '25-'28e
ANNONS
Solid Q4 closes a strong year
Q4 was in line with estimates and confirmed the underlying momentum despite some near-term noise. Sales were EUR 612m (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront consensus), with organic growth of 11% (ABGSCe 11%), and adj. EBITDA of EUR 95m (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/consensus), implying a margin of 15.5%, up 1.4pp y-o-y. Both Healthcare Services and Diagnostic Services delivered y-o-y margin expansion, supported by price improvements, volume growth and operational leverage. Within HS, sports/wellness and ambulatory clinics in Poland performed well, while India saw double-digit growth in local currency. In DS, strong FFS volumes, efficiency measures and a favourable mix helped offset the German reimbursement reform, confirming the segment is navigating the change well. OCF was also strong, up 56% y-o-y. Management pointed to early signs of recovery in the softer demand trends seen in late Q3, with improving momentum in India driven by increasing capacity utilisation and operational improvements. Note that the company will host an investor update on Wednesday, 11 Feb, 13:00-15:00 CET.
Estimate changes
We leave '26e-'27e adj. EBITDA broadly unchanged, +0-1%, while we lower sales by 2-3%. Overall, we believe the new targets support continued solid growth, albeit somewhat lower than we had in our numbers, but with margins expected to improve further. We now expect sales of EUR 3.25bn, in line with the company's targets, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 590m, a tad below the '28 target of EUR 600m.
FVR unchanged at SEK 200-280
We leave our FVR at SEK 220-280 on minor estimate revisions. We derive our range from the multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 10x-12x.
