Midsona: Looking due North as South comps ease in H2 - ABG
* Q2'26: Profitable but not yet growing into the story * H2'26e: One tailwind balanced with a few open cost questions * Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 9x
ANNONS
North Europe is the underlying culprit Q2 missed the mark on both sales and adj. EBIT, although not by a lot (-2% on sales, -7% on adj. EBIT, i.e. SEK 1m). The gross margin was in line with expectations at 29%, but elevated opex caused the EBIT miss. Management flags that it has stepped up the marketing behind priority brands. The Nordics impressed (adj. EBIT 15% above ABGSCe), while North Europe stayed flat at SEK 5m adj. EBIT on a further -4% organic sales decline. South Europe, meanwhile, improved to SEK 2m from break-even despite a -7% organic drag from the Spanish fire aftermath.
The Spain comp fades, but input cost risk doesn't The clearest structural tailwind heading into H2 2026 is the phasing out of the Spain fire base effect in Q3, which should remove a significant drag on contract manufacturing comparisons. Cost savings are fully embedded in the run rate, but marketing spend will remain elevated as a strategic choice. Raw material and energy cost trends for H2 remain uncertain, with some risk to input costs from Middle East disruptions and fertiliser price increases. The outlook comments in the report are fairly in line with our previous understanding, with nothing in the report warranting a material change to our estimates or long-term view.
We cut '26e adj. EBITA by 2% We make slight cuts to our sales and adj. EBITA estimates, lowering '26e-'27e sales by ~1% p.a. and adj. EBITA by 2-1%, respectively. We slightly lower our H2'26 estimates to reflect a somewhat elevated opex base. Our EPS estimates are up on lower-than-expected net financials and taxes. Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~15% below current peer multiples. We note that peers are in turn trading ~20% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.
