Midsona: Profit warning for Q4

Midsona: Profit warning for Q4 - ABG

Issues profit warning for Q4 Sales SEK 1,012m (+1% vs. ABG, -2% vs. cons.) Adj. EBITDA SEK 61m (-37% vs. ABG, -39% vs. cons.)

Headwinds continue This afternoon, Midsona issued a profit warning for Q4’21. Sales came in at SEK 1,012m, which was relatively in line with cons. (+1% vs. ABGSCe SEK 999m -2% vs. cons. SEK 1028m). After a rough start to the quarter, the sales trend has been positive throughout, with the company seeing positive sales growth in December and January. While Vitality adds some 3-4% to sales growth, the reported sales in Q4 could mean that the company is showing positive organic growth in December/January as well, according to our estimates. Gross margin the main explanation The reason to the profit warning was the margin, where adj. EBITDA came in at SEK 61m, which was 37% below our expectations at SEK 97.5m and 39% below cons at ~100m. While the supply chain issues during Q4 were known beforehand, the issues have accelerated. Due to the difficulties securing supply, the company has been forced to purchase goods to spot prices, which has been a significant drag on margins. The earlier announced price hikes seem to be relatively locked in at this point, which means margins should improve gradually with full effect in Q2. Cons. likely down high-single-digits or low-double-digits On the back of the profit warning, the mechanic estimate effect for 2021 is around 10% on EBITDA. Looking at the 2022 effect, we would expect cons. estimate changes within a similar magnitude. While the low Q4 margin was to some extent a one-off, we fear cons. adj. EBITDA margins at 10.8% in 2022e, higher than the exceptional 2020, looks stretched. Hence, while top-line estimates are likely to hold up relatively well, we could see cons. taking down its EBITDA expectations by high-single-digits or low-double-digits. Läs mer på Introduce

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