Midsona: Small steps forward on tougher comps - ABG
* Q3e: 1% organic growth and 5% EBIT margin * The report should answer long-term questions * Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 7x
ANNONS
Growth should return in South
We anticipate organic growth of 1% in Q3'26, implying sales of SEK 948m and EBIT of SEK 49m, for a 5% margin. The organic growth, coupled with a 4% M&A contribution and a 1% FX effect, puts top-line growth at 6%. We expect the Nordics to sustain org. growth at the same pace as in Q2 (0.5%), as we believe the warm summer likely favoured impulse consumption over dry and organic ranges. South Europe should reach 4% organic growth as comps will no longer include the old Spanish factory. We see the GM at 28% (28.7% adj. in Q3'25), roughly half on Risenta mix, which has a lower margin and still includes a transitional supply markup in COGS, and half on packaging and freight inflation into a channel with fixed pricing windows.
We look for long-term answers in Q3 report
This is the first quarter with Risenta consolidated, and we will look for commentary on how much it will contribute to EBIT, specifically considering insourcing timing, the size of the transitional COGS markup, and how the organisation will be built. We also hope for a decision on the long-term plan for Spain, which since Q1 has been flagged as due soon, and look for an update on Nordic B2B after several quarters of exited contracts. On costs, we will look for how much input inflation the company intends to recover in the coming price negotiations, due to oil prices.
Small estimate cuts
We cut '26e adj. EBIT by 2%, while '27e-'28e is lifted by FX. Our cuts reflect a softer Nordic category backdrop over the summer, acquired volumes that dilute mix before they contribute to profit, and input cost inflation into a channel that reprices slowly, all in the first quarter of the year against a strong comp (5% adj. EBIT margin). On our revised estimates Midsona is trading at 8x-6.5x '26e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA.
