Midsona: Top-line recovery around the corner - ABG
* Q2e: 1% organic growth and 4% EBITA margin * Limited estimate changes * Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 10x
ANNONS
Q2e: back to growth
We anticipate organic growth of 1% in Q2'26e, implying sales of SEK 885m and EBIT of SEK 33m, for a margin of 3.8%. The organic growth, coupled with a 1.3% M&A contribution and a 0.2% FX effect, puts top-line growth at 2.3%. This would imply the first quarter with positive growth since Q1'25, and we highlight that comps are relatively light but that this also stems from sequential underlying improvements. We expect a slightly lower GM q-o-q (28.7% vs. 29.8%), on assumed higher COGS on raw material prices. The Q1 report commented on a shift in the Nordics, where management expected some volumes that typically land in Q1, to land in Q2, which we also believe will slightly support the quarter.
What to look for in the Q2 report
We make limited revisions to our Q2 estimates, increasing '26e-'28e sales and adj. EBIT by ~1% and ~2% p.a., respectively. The majority of changes stem from updated FX movements. We are excited to see the first quarter with Risenta in the figures, and hope for more colour on how physically moving the production will affect earnings. We also expect a decision on the long-term plan for Spain, as this was communicated in the Q1 report. In terms of growth, we look for updates regarding B2B sales in the Nordics, as the termination of unprofitable contracts has weighed on growth for several quarters.
Implied valuation and new LTIP
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~10x-9x '26e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA, which is ~55-45% below current peer multiples at 15x-14x. We note that peers are in turn trading ~4% above the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA. We also note that Midsona has launched a LTIP, with payouts geared 90% to EPS growth ('26-'28) and 10% to emissions reduction, capped at ~1.8% dilution and an estimated P&L cost of SEK 16-50m depending on outcome.
