Nanexa: Funding secured as semaglutide pivot sharpens commercial focus - Emergers
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Nanexa: Funding secured as semaglutide pivot sharpens commercial focus - Emergers

Following the breakthrough license deal with Moderna, a global leader in mRNA therapeutics, in Q4’25, Nanexa now pursues two main tracks to leverage its PharmaShell technology into commercial value creation: the Moderna license development agreement and the yet unlicensed long-acting semaglutide project. With the upfront payment from Moderna and the conversion of SEK 8.5m in warrants in Q1 2026, the cash position now amounts to roughly SEK 61m, meaning that financing is secured at least through 2026. We continue to see significant upside should further milestones or additional deals materialise, not least from the company’s own semaglutide depot project, supporting a potential company valuation well above SEK 1 billion, or SEK 6 per share, but stress that the lack of detail so far means that the margin of error in any fundamental valuation approach remains huge at this point.


Moderna deal a significant recognition of Nanexa’s technology

The Moderna agreement in December marks a transition from technical validation to commercial relevance for Nanexa. Covering development of up to five undisclosed mRNA assets, with up to USD 500m in potential milestones and tiered single-digit royalties, the structure is ambitious relative to Nanexa’s size. The absence of disclosure regarding indication, development timelines or prioritisation, however, continues to limit any attempt at meaningful risk-adjusted modelling. At the same time, Nanexa’s international exposure following the Moderna agreement, recognition as a finalist in the Fierce Life Sciences Innovation Awards, and participation at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in January suggest that industry awareness of Nanexa has now reached a materially higher level than a year ago.


Semaglutide to take centre stage

Given that semaglutide has largely replaced liraglutide in the GLP-1 market due to its superior profile, Nanexa’s pivot from liraglutide to semaglutide sharpens the commercial logic and increases relevance for prospective partners. With encouraging data from the clinical proof-of-concept study, focus now shifts to the ongoing in vivo rat study for semaglutide that began in Q4, with pharmacokinetic data expected during Q1’26. Management indicates that discussions with selected companies regarding potential licensing are ongoing. Should preclinical data confirm a credible monthly – or especially quarterly – profile, the semaglutide project could emerge as a more tangible value driver than the longer-dated Moderna program.


Financial position strengthened – valuation still option-like

Financially, the picture has improved materially. The USD 3m upfront from Moderna (approximately SEK 28m), combined with SEK 8.5m from warrant conversion in Q1 2026, brings the company’s cash position to around SEK 61m. Based on current cost levels, this suggests that financing is secured at least through 2026, materially reducing near-term dilution risk. Valuation support, however, remains inherently fragile. While the Moderna deal carries substantial theoretical headline value, milestone timing, probability of success and commercial scope remain undisclosed. Similarly, although the semaglutide project offers clearer commercial logic, it remains at a preclinical stage. As a result, the investment case continues to resemble a portfolio of embedded options: one long-dated mRNA delivery program with a blue-chip partner, and one internally advanced GLP-1 depot project with nearer-term readouts. We continue to see significant upside should further deals materialise or the company advance its own semaglutide depot project, supporting a potential company valuation well above SEK 1 billion, or roughly SEK 6 per share. At the same time, we reiterate that the lack of detailed disclosure means that the margin of error in any fundamental valuation approach remains exceptionally wide.
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