NAVPS as of 31 December was SEK 73.78, implying an increase of +7.7% q-o-q. Total shareholder return (TSR) amounted to +14% (SIXRX benchmark +12%), as the discount to NAV narrowed by 5pp to 12%. The proposed DPS of SEK 3.50 was up from SEK 3.00 last year, and thus also beat our SEK 3.00 estimate. We have raised our DPS estimates to reflect the higher level going forward as well. Regarding the direct investments, Scout Gaming Group (-45%) and Awilco Drilling (-24%) both declined substantially, while Keurig Dr. Pepper (+8%) increased. Yet, it was the strong development in the valuation of the fund investments that drove the NAV increase. Private equity fund investments currently comprise 62% of NAV (73% including commitments), with direct investments at 6%, and net cash at 32%.
Two acquisitions and two exits by underlying funds
Q4 was a rather quiet quarter from an activity standpoint. However, the underlying funds completed two new acquisitions, including Equip I’s acquisition of Cure Media, and Nordic Capital Fund X’s purchase of Vizrt. Two complete exits were also carried out, including Nordic Capital CV1’s exit from Macro Offshore, and Intera II’s announced divestment of Renta. Meanwhile, Valedo II completed a partial exit as Norva24 went public. We are still awaiting for an announcement regarding a new CEO for NAXS.
Valuation in line with historical average, below sector avg.
NAXS currently offers exposure to 13 funds from nine different managers and seven direct investments. The discount to NAV currently stands at 17%, roughly in line with the historical average (2010+) of 16%, but still stands out as high in the investment company sector. Based on the stocks that we track; the median sector valuation is a discount of 10%. In addition, the balance sheet remains strong and we believe the
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