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Nelly: Rightsizing to lift margins - SEB

Reflecting in particular difficult trading, Nelly has issued Q2 guidance for sales to decline y/y (“double digit percentage”) and for EBIT to be “negative or close to zero”. We downgrade our financial forecasts accordingly. While we expect its fully automated DC to generate savings of SEK 35m in this year, we reckon negative leverage from declining sales (also ahead) will offset these P&L effects. Our revised mid-point equity value is SEK 32 (SEK 45).

Reflecting in particular difficult trading, Nelly has issued Q2 guidance for sales to decline y/y (“double digit percentage”) and for EBIT to be “negative or close to zero”. We downgrade our financial forecasts accordingly. While we expect its fully automated DC to generate savings of SEK 35m in this year, we reckon negative leverage from declining sales (also ahead) will offset these P&L effects. Our revised mid-point equity value is SEK 32 (SEK 45).
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