Netcompany: Continued strong performance, while 2023 margin guidance disappointed - Nordea

At first glance, Netcompany 2022 annual report looks as a positive read when it comes to Q4 performance, while the 2023 guidance is a large disappointment. Q4 revenue and EBITDA ended 4% and 5%, respectively vs the company-compiled consensus. Q4 organic revenue growth was 18.9%. 2022 EBITDA exceeded its implicit guidance by 2% (based on the >20% EBITDA margin guidance). For 2023, Netcompany guides for 8-12% (organic) revenue growth (consensus: 10%) and a 15-18% EBITDA margin (consensus: 20.6% / Nordea: 20.0%). The implicit EBITDA guidance is DKK ~0.9-1.1bn vs. consensus at DK 1.24 bn and Nordea at DKK 1.2bn, hence a meaningful EBITDA miss and margin decline y/y. The declining margin is explained by (organic) investments in new markets (people and software), new HQ, fewer work days y/y etc., and also the impacts from a recession. Still, we struggle to believe these extra costs and effects will dilute the margin in this magnitude, and as a consequence we expect Netcompany to have included a sizable effect from Under-promise-and-over-deliver philosophy given its history. High-end 2023 EBITDA guidance imply ~8% 2023 EBITDA consensus downgrade. We expect an initial negative share price performance, however the investor call at 11 CET may change the mood. Our last published combined DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range was DKK 445-520 per share