Nexam Chemical: Q1 soft but structural tailwinds building - ABG
* Sales SEK 44m (-5% vs. ABGSCe), EBIT -5.5m (vs. -3.3m) * We cut '26e-'28e sales by 1-2%, total EBIT by SEK 6m * Rising virgin plastic prices present an opportunity for Nexam
ANNONS
Q1 a bit softer, more optimistic on Q2
Nexam reported slightly softer sales than we had expected, at SEK 44m (-11% y-o-y, -5% vs. ABGSCe). The overall weakness was driven by a 'wait-and-see' market, particularly in the Lightweight segment, while Performance Chemicals sales fell 25% y-o-y. Masterbatch held up relatively well at -1% y-o-y (+19% vs. ABGSCe). The bright spot remains Recycling, where sales reached SEK 6.8m (+89% y-o-y). Due to the lower sales, EBIT was also lower than we expected at SEK -5.5m (ABGSCe -3.5m). Management guides for a strong Q2 vs. Q1, which is also reflected in our estimates. We expect this to be driven by: 1) a gradual recovery across all segments, 2) contribution from the NA customer 3) continued growth in Recycling.
Estimate changes
We lower our '26e-'28e sales by 1-2% and total '26e-'28e EBIT by 6m after the Q1 report. We continue to expect Nexam to reach positive EBIT in '27e driven by the scaling-up of Recycling, with several customers transitioning into industrial production, a return to growth in key segments (e.g. Lightweight) and a broader customer base.
Rising virgin plastic prices strengthen Recycling case
Nexam highlights the recent surge in virgin plastic prices, where prices are up 40-80% vs. 2025 levels. This shifts recycling from a sustainability choice to a cost necessity, playing directly into Nexam's Reactive Recycling platform. Moreover, management reiterates its ambition to double Recycling sales in 2026 vs. 2025. The share has returned +2% over the last three months (vs. peers at -10% and OMXSALLS at +6%) and is trading at 1.1x-0.9x '26e-'28e EV/Sales.
