Nexam Chemical: We expect another quarter of mixed signals - ABG
* Report out on 21 April * Q1e sales of SEK 46m (49m), EBIT SEK -3.5m (-2.8m) * Recycling remains the key growth driver
ANNONS
Q1 expectations
We estimate Q1 sales of SEK 46m, -7% y-o-y. In Performance Chemicals, Recycling should sustain its momentum (~20% of sales in Q4'25) to continue to drive growth in the segment. We expect High Temperature to normalise after the temporary inventory build-up among its largest customer in Q4; we estimate segment sales of SEK 22m (20m). We think Masterbatch, which is more exposed to general industry, will continue to face soft end-markets; we estimate sales of SEK 24m, down 17% y-o-y. On EBIT, we estimate SEK -3.5m (-2.8m).
Estimate changes
We cut '26e-'28e sales by 3-2% and total '26e-'28e EBIT by SEK 7m ahead of the Q1 report. We still expect Nexam to reach positive EBIT in '27, supported by growing Recycling volumes.
We remain positive on Recycling
Our long-term view is largely unchanged. The Recycling segment has been expanding rapidly, offsetting weakness in areas such as PET-form. Notably, a US-based customer is broadening its use of Nexam additives for food packaging, with an expected annual run-rate of SEK 11m from Q2'26. Management sees an obtainable market of ~EUR 70m (assuming 5% penetration in Europe and 2% elsewhere), compared with Recycling sales of ~EUR 2.2m in 2025, implying substantial upside. The share has returned +7% over the last three months (vs. peers at -16% and OMXSALLS at +3%) and is trades at 1.2x-0.9x '26e-'28e EV/Sales. We lower our fair value range to SEK 3.0-4.0 on our estimate cuts (previously SEK 3.0-5.0).
