Nilörn: Continuing in good fashion

Nilörn: Continuing in good fashion - ABG

Q3 results due on October 22
We expect sales of SEK 159m and EBIT of SEK 17m
Share is trading at EV/EBIT 8.4x-7.7x for ‘21e-‘23e

We expect the growth momentum to have continued into Q3 with organic growth expanding 11% to SEK 159m. We think that Nilörngruppen will continue to benefit from its customer mix and experience continued tailwinds, which is supported by recent official clothing sales statistics indicating the same pattern. More specifically, we expect continued tailwinds within sports and e-commerce. Additionally, and in contrast to H1’21, we forecast increased demand from the brick-and-mortar customer base on the back of removed pandemic restrictions. Although Nilörngruppen has been impacted by COVID-19, not least at its production site in Bangladesh, the company now appears set to capture the possibilities arising with the gradual re-opening. We make no large estimate changes, as we still view H2’21e with caution due to rising raw material prices and freight costs. If these factors were to affect Nilörngruppen significantly, we could potentially see a scenario where it proves unable to immediately respond with price hikes. This could hamper short-term margins, but this remains hypothetical at this point.

On our updated view and estimates, the Nilörngruppen share is trading at EV/EBIT adj. of 8.4x-7.7x for ’21e-‘23e. In comparison, significantly larger peer Avery Dennison is currently trading at EV/EBIT of 18.4x-16.6x for ’21e-‘22e.

Nilörn: Continuing in good fashion - ABG

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