Nilörn: Strong orders, but pressured margins - ABG
* Sales 2% and adj. EBIT -31% vs. ABGSCe * Order intake SEK 251m, above expectations * Likely negative consensus estimate revisions
ANNONS
Q4'25 impressions
Q4 was better than expected on sales and order bookings, but dissapointed on adj. EBIT. Nilörn delivered sales of SEK 219m (2% vs ABGSCe 214m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 6%. The CEO comments on a cautious market and FX headwinds, as the majority of Nilörn's sales are made in currencies linked to the USD and not SEK. The order intake came in at SEK 251m, implying a y-o-y growth of 5%. This was partly due to a major order (SEK 18m) that typically is received in Q3 but arrived in Q4 2025. For reference, we expected order bookings in the range of SEK 220-240m, meaning that order bookings were above expectations even when excluding the major order. The gross margin increased to 47% (1pp vs ABGSCe 46%). Adj. EBIT amounted to SEK 11m (-31% vs ABGSCe 17m), for a margin of 5.2% (-2.5pp vs ABGSCe 7.7%), vs. 8.4% Q4'24.
Thoughts and outlook
Nilörn's business model is highly scalable, and quarters with low volumes leads to negative operating leverage, which partly drove the EBIT miss vs. our estimates. While some costs were temporarily elevated, we expect margins to remain pressured in the short term. Visibility has come down a bit, as Nilörn is highly affected by FX movements and the retail market overall is experiencing uncertainty. Nilörn comments on continued caution in the market, specifically in the luxury segment, while other segments such as sports and outdoor are stable. Nilörn reiterates its commentary on current high inventories in the luxury market, which it assesses should come down in mid-2026, ultimately leading to higher demand. Nilörn reiterates its target of 7% growth
Mechanical impact on cons. earnings is within a h.s.d. range
The share is down ~5% YTD and Nilörn is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on consensus estimates on the back of the report is within a negative mid-single-digit range.
